Life expectancy

Question

No other site gives the same results. I am a woman of 45 years living in France, as a couple without children. I have got a mainly digestive CF with diabetes ... I'm followed up by the CF Center of X and my health is fair (with no special issues except Pseudomonas at end of 2007 since then eradicated). I'd like to evaluate the life expectancy of people with my "luck" ... and would like to know the statistics of 2010 survivors of my age!
Thank you.

Answer

Hello,
The average lifespan is obtained by adding a patient's age and life expectancy at that age, estimated from the rate of mortality (ie the proportion of deaths) observed over time in the patient population of this age. The result is obtained by tricky statistical calculations. Thus, this result has to be interpreted with great caution for several reasons: 1) the statistical value is mitigated by the low number of patients of the same age, even if gathering several birth years to obtain a larger population, 2) the average lifespan is calculated under the assumption of a stable situation, which is obviously false given the advances seen in CF and the steady rise of life expectancy at all ages, 3) values apply to a population of patients and are just an indication of a trend for a given individual: the evolution of the disease depends on many individual factors that make the life journey of each patient unique.
The only study of the French CF population has been published in the Journal of Cystic Fibrosis in May 2007, Volume 6, 179-186 (Bellis et al.). Subject to the precautions of interpretation, life expectancy, estimated from observed mortality rates in 2001-2003 for patients aged 40-44 years, was 17.8 years. This leads to an average lifespan of 57.8 to 61.8 years (17.8 years + 40 to 44 years already experienced). Note that this study isn't up to date and that life expectancy of patients, including your age, would certainly be significantly increased when we get the 2007-2010 French CF Registry's data.
As far as you are concerned, your mild respiratory impairment is an additional factor of good prognosis. Diabetes, on the other hand, can be a factor of poorer prognosis if not properly controlled, firstly because of the specific complications of diabetes, secondly because of the increased risk of deteriorating the nutritional and respiratory status of the CF patients. So I cannot emphasize enough the importance of regular follow up in your CF Center in order to save your best health.

Best regards.
Dr. Gilles Rault

09.12.2010